Hillary Has The Numbers, Poised to Lead Pop Vote

Here are the updated and just released Kentucky and Ohio primary results, polling data from Quinnipiac, popular vote count from Real Clear Politics, plus analysis from the Philadelphia Inquirer.

The Philadelphia Inquirer reports today, May 23, 2008, that in the “most inclusive count, Hillary Clinton has the numbers.”

Lost in the excitement of Barack Obama’s coronation this week was an inconvenient fact of Tuesday’s results: Hillary Clinton netted approximately 150,000 votes and is now poised to finish the primary season as the popular-vote leader. In some quaint circles, presumably, these things still matter.

Real Clear Politics keeps track of six versions of the popular-vote total. They are, in ascending order of inclusivity: (1) the popular vote of sanctioned contests; (2) the total of sanctioned contests, plus estimated votes from the Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington caucuses; (3) the popular vote plus Florida; (4) popular vote plus Florida and the caucuses; (5) the popular vote plus Florida and Michigan; (6) popular vote plus Florida, Michigan, and the caucus estimates. After Tuesday, Clinton now leads in two of these six counts.

Here’s the popular vote, including FL & MI, plus IA, NV, ME, WA, according and thanks to Real Clear Politics:

State
Obama Clinton Spread
Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)** 17,258,236 47.5% 17,424,437 47.9% Clinton +166,201 +0.45%
Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA* 17,592,320 47.6% 17,648,299 47.7% Clinton +55,979 +0.15%

Referring back to the Inquirer’s analysis:

To understand how razor-thin this majority is, consider that if the Puerto Rico turnout is slightly larger than we have imagined – or Clinton’s margin is slightly greater – then Clinton would finish the primary process leading in every conceivable vote count. With two million voters, a 28 percent victory would put Clinton over the top even in the count, which excludes Florida and Michigan and includes estimates for Obama’s caucus victories. (emphasis, mine)

It is this looming prospect which explains the tremendous pressure Obama partisans and the media are putting on Clinton to drop out of the race. They want her gone now because they understand that she has an excellent chance of finishing as the undisputed people’s choice.

And:

New Primary Results from NY Times, May 23, 2008

Kentucky Primary Results

Democrats

51 pledged delegates, 9 unpledged
Candidate Vote % Delegates
Hillary Clinton 459,124 65.5% 37
Barack Obama 209,778 29.9 14
Uncommitted 18,059 2.6 0
John Edwards 14,205 2.0 0

And:

New Quinnipiac Polls

May 22, 2008 – McCain Leads Obama In Two Of Three Key Swing States

Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Clinton Has Big Leads In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania

FL: Clinton 48 – McCain 41; McCain 45 – Obama 41;

OHIO: Clinton 48 – McCain 41; McCain 44 – Obama 40:

PENN: Clinton 50 – McCain 37; Obama 46 – McCain 40

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